What it says is that the yield curve has been inverted now for 3 months – an entire quarter. What they don’t completely explain is why that is most likely happening. Normally people want a higher interest rate to tie their money up for longer. Usually because there is a certain opportunity cost associated with not having access to your own money. So logic would follow that to attract a longer term investor one would be pay a higher rate. However, if/when people start realizing the high stock market isn’t guaranteed, they will take their money out. Then they are left with a decision of how to invest. One group of people will want security above all else, and they will head towards longer treasuries. So too much money is out in the market competing for longer term notes to guarantee they get some sort of return locked in NOW. Another group of people are sitting on the sidelines with their money hoping to get in on some good deals after the market has collapsed. They are potentially content to wait with their money idle until they see a good deal on something. Shorter term rates have to increase in order to entice some of these people off the sidelines. In my opinion those two simultaneous market pressures are what has caused this phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve. This article is saying we are 9 to 18 months out. Personally I would say we are like 6 to 18 months out. Remember that 18 months out from the date of the NPR article is 12/30/2020. Potential end of the year profit taking this year is only 6 months away and that could really be that kiss of death for the “Trump Economy”. If people get out with record profits are they really going to want to reinvest with Trump in charge?
I look at it like Trump is a really drunk and incoherently babbling pirate that came to command by theft and conspiracy and is now commanding the Titanic (or Trumptanic) in a sea full of icebergs. A thinking person realizes there’s a lot that could go wrong rather quickly.
I feel the phrase that best describes the current economy over the last year is “even a dead cat bounces a few times”. In the past, Trump has shown he’s “GREAT” at one thing: running things into the ground hard. What do you think, will the “Trump Collapse” become his biggest known flop ever?